Uncle Sam claims there is only "One China," but I have seen two. One China is the enormous and authoritarian Peoples Republic (PRC) encircling one of every 5 people on Earth and governed by the Communist Party since 1949. The other China, the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC), is democratically governed and inhabits a number of islands uniting 23 million citizens across the Taiwan Strait. The geographical distance between the mainland and the ROC is not great, perhaps 90-100 miles at high tide. The political distance between the two--well, they are light-years apart.

And the relationship is strategic, of global significance. In the warning words of U.S. Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN), who told listeners to the Public Broadcasting System's Frontline (October 19, 2001), that if war were to break out anywhere in the world, the most likely place would be the Taiwan Strait.

Perhaps we should heed that admonition more carefully on this side of the Pacific because a war in the Taiwan Strait would inevitably involve the United States, said Dr. Chen Pi-chao, Taiwan's vice minister of National Defense in the same Frontline telecast. So the cross-Strait relation must be managed with great skill and sensitivity. And in Taiwan that vital responsibility falls to the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), established in 1991 as an inter-agency group in the Executive Yuan (like the U.S. Executive Office of the President). Dr. Tsai Ing-wen, an extremely able appointee of Premier Chang Chun-hsiung, chairs the MAC. She is a member of that group of world-class women who has broken through the political glass ceiling. And by all accounts she is very bright, very articulate, very personable, and on the "must see list" of every foreign official visiting Taiwan. Our group of international election observers was no exception.

The meeting with Dr. Tsai was one of the most interesting for me because many in our group knew her personally. Before her appointment as Chair of the MAC, and Senior Advisor to the president at the National Security Council, she worked the same intellectual circuit of China specialists now at the conference table around her. Dr. Tsai received her Ph.D at the London School of Economics and Political Science in 1984, and her JD (doctor of jurisprudence) from the Cornell University Law School in 1980. Her baccalaureate is from National Taiwan University.

At the outset the atmosphere in the conference room at the MAC offices was light, almost bantering, but once into her topic, Dr. Tsai's tone changed dramatically. And here I must be careful because Dr. Tsai asked if she could be "frank" and straightforward with old acquaintances and familiar faces. Then she asked if she could speak "off the record," not-for-attribution. Of course I must honor her request, but I want also to share a sense of the challenge Taiwan faces through the eyes of the MAC, and its chairwoman, Dr. Tsai Ing-wen.

To begin let me characterize Dr. Tsai's remarks as "realistic" towards the PRC, rather than optimistic, but not pessimistic, either. She affirmed President Chen's formulation that contacts between the ROC and PRC are "special relations between two countries," a formulation, which negates the PRC's "One China" policy. The PRC has said, in effect, Taiwan, you accept there is "one China," then we (ROC and PRC) can resume cross-Strait talks. Chen's formulation also nullifies the state-to-state framework of former president Lee Tung-hui, which caused the PRC to bluster and the United States to bridle. But, until now, Pres. Chen has been unable to induce the PRC even to meet with the ROC. Cross-Strait relations are at a stand still. They have been at a standstill since June 1995, when Beijing unilaterally suspended talks with Taipei.

Besides how to establish a formal mechanism for dialogue with the PRC, which MAC chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen called "MAC's most important goal," the next critical issue for the Mainland Affairs Council clearly is how to reconcile the blossoming economic relations vital both to Taiwan and to the mainland, and the political relation, which is devilishly more divisive. One frequently hears that the mainland's leader Jiang Zemin is obsessed with reunifying Taiwan, as he did Hong Kong and Macao, making that the legacy of his presidential term, which is scheduled to end in 2002.

Even Taiwan's economy, however, is a challenge for the MAC. The ROC's investment on the mainland is estimated by AsiaWeek to be in excess of $100 billion. Shanghai, for example, is called a haven for Taiwanese retirees who live cheaply and for ROC companies on the mainland, which ship PCs and laptop computers worldwide, especially to the United States. Last year only 49% of Taiwan's information-technology products were made in Taiwan; much of the rest was produced in the PRC. But the relationship also sucks capital out of Taiwan that is badly needed for Taiwan's own economic growth to pull itself out of the worst economic downturn in its history with 5.5% unemployment.

Before addressing MAC's challenging defense issues in the next article, however, I will visit the issue of "one China" and the 1992 consensus. It's as confusing, as it is strait forward. But that's next time; I hope you can come along for the read.