Dateline Doha:

"Today I have exciting news to share with my fellow countrymen..." proclaimed President Chen Shui-bian. "At 11:22 last night [November 11, 2001] the World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference formally approved Taiwan's accession to the WTO." He concluded: "Through market liberalization and globalization, we will complete industrial restructuring to enable Taiwan's economy to take off into a new century of hope and opportunity." An economic lift-off cannot come too soon for Taiwan.

Indeed accession to membership in the WTO was a momentous moment, opening a window on a new century for Taiwan to become the 144th member following 12 years of arduous negotiation. And now Chen Po-chih, Chairman of the Council of Economic Planning and Development, was part of the cabinet-level team to make it work, he told us, the international election observers, and it would be no small task. WTO membership brings new opportunities like offering local companies easier access to overseas markets and fairer treatment on an equal footing in those markets. In addition the price to consumers for 18 of 41 previously banned agricultural products will drop decidedly. Lichees, papayas, and pomegranates, for example, should be come plentiful and cheap. Life can only get sweeter.

Before continuing, I have a brief quiz for the curious reader. Doha, where the WTO held its Conference admitting Taiwan, is the capital city of what state___________? If you said Qatar, that oil-rich, amirate jutting out from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into the Persian Gulf, you score 100. But be careful if you pronounce the name "Qatar" aloud. Be sure to say, "gutter," like a roof-gutter. "Strange," you say. Maybe! But be sure to pronounce "Taiwan" as "Chinese Taipei," also. This is part of the name game agreed upon in 1992 to stroke mainland China's feathers. Since the WTO is an economic, rather than a political entity, Beijing agreed not to thwart Taiwan's application to join the world's most important economic forum, as long as the WTO agreed to categorize Taiwan as a "separate customs territory" instead of a country. And the PRC insisted on becoming a full-member first. It was WTO member 143.

As the world's 14th largest economy, Taiwan's potential benefit from participation in the WTO global regime is enormous, although the short term cost, especially in agriculture, will be challenging for the government. 

On the benefits side, Taiwan's export-oriented industries, particularly, will gain. Petrochemicals, plastics, information-technology and machinery are already internationally competitive. Products of these industries will benefit because of most-favored-nation (MFN) status. Other industries like paper making in Taiwan and household appliances should also benefit handsomely and over the longer term.

From a broader perspective, WTO membership helps affirm Taiwan's rightfully deserved role on the world stage. Under WTO rules Taiwan now will get better trade protection as well as access to the WTO's mechanism for resolving trade disputes fairly.

Agriculture remains a challenge. Upon entering the WTO on January 1, 2002, Taiwan agreed to cut agricultural support by 35%. Industrial support by contrast was cut a mere 4%. Farm interests everywhere are potent politically. They are in Taiwan. The Council of Agriculture predicts that some 100,000 farmers will be put out of business or lose their jobs and production will decrease by a hefty 12%. Chairman Chen alluded to this minefield, but acknowledged it is a minefield, which must and will be crossed.

Politically there is hope membership in the WTO will enhance Taiwan's independence from the PRC and underscore its capacity to participate in global organizations equally with other sovereign states. For Taiwan this is a way to side-step the hair-trigger sovereignty issue without confounding cross-Strait relations hopefully! But more, Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen told our group she believed WTO membership for both the ROC and PRC could open a new era in economic and commercial relations. And those economic successes could spillover into political achievements across the strait.

Or, it could do the reverse. Chairman Chen Po-chih already sees shadows on the economic horizon, particularly in agriculture. If the PRC seeks to flood Taiwan with cheap produce, which they seem prepared to do, Taiwan, said Chairman Chen, will simply prohibit the imports. And what could or should the WTO do? Mainland China refuses to recognize the WTO's judicial instruments for dispute resolution between the PRC and ROC because, says Beijing, they apply only to disputes between sovereign states. And, as everyone knows, Beijing calls Taiwan a renegade province of the PRC.

Accordingly said Chairman Chen, if the PRC won't negotiate with Taiwan about agriculture and other trade issues (which they have not done since 1995) agriculture could become a very tendentious, cross-Strait issue. How the WTO will help or hinder this political posturing on both sides is an important question. It's too early to tell the outcome, however, just a few weeks into the new year and the new membership. And besides the celebration is hardly over. On Accession Day, some 600 exuberant Taiwanese, including Vice President Annette Lu and former president Lee Teng-hui boarded trains from Taipei in the north and Kaohsiung in the south and met in central Taichung. It was a happy occasion, and there was much to celebrate.