The Middle Class in China (4)

by Tzy C. Peng

	I also happen to know from my relatives (age 40-60) that the 
age 10-30 group is counting on their parents to come up with at least 
15-50 thousand yuan for modern housing plus household items when they 
decide to get married. In the mean time, they spend whatever they earn on 
having a good time. I do hope I am wrong on this information! 
The question now is how long can this kind of generation-transfer funding 
sustain itself?  Or put it another way, how long will it be before the 
financial well of the older generation runs dry? When the reserve wells 
do run dry, can the 10-30 generation find a means of making a living?

	I do not have the answer to this question, but I do know that it would be 
in everybody's interest, indeed to the world's interest to make sure that 
the long economic growth at 6-9% annually continues for at least another 
generation. The reason is simple: when 1.3 billion people are not 
starving, they generate wealth which would be beneficial to raise the 
standard of living for the Chinese and increase the stability for the 
world as a whole. This scenario would work in my opinion if two 
essential conditions are met. 

	One, there is no sharp population growth in China so that the burden of 
sustaining a good living is contained at a managible level. This 
condition has been essentially met by the one-child policy. In fact, the 
policy which was enforced by government in the beginning, appears to have 
gained momentum by people embracing it on their own. This is not because 
of brain-washing of any kind by the government, but by the human desire to 
reduce their burden of raising children when the standard of living is 
high. This is evidenced in all western countries as well as Japan.  The 
population growth has been going down for years in Europe and North 
America, precisely because living is so enjoyable that people, especially 
the young generation, are not willing to sacrifice their good and 
independent life-style for the burden of a parenthood.   

	Of course, the 
desire to have children always exists.  But having fewer children, or even 
just one child is an established universal fact when the living standard 
is high.  China is no exception.  Today, the affluent 10-30 Chinese group, 
the new middle class, do not want more than two children generally.
Two, there must be some evidence that the annual 6-9% growth rate is 
sustainable.  We have only circumstan-cial evidence for that.  After an 
extensive study using both Chinese and Western sources, Wendy Liu concludes that the economic and even political liberalization are on-going 
and have no sign of reversing the trend. Richard Ernberger of Newsweek 
International and Kenichi Ohmae of Japan Times wrote in 
their recent articles that the Chinese economy shows no sign of 
retreating. The coming prospect of joinning the WTO should further 
encourage, not discourage the continuation of an open market in China to 
the world. Unless something unforeseen occurs, there is every optimism 
that the ecominc growth in China would continue, and that the middle class 
of China would also likely grow and become more important in influencing 
China's national policy as times goes forward.

	Finally, if the expectation of the Chinese middle class comes true, then 
it is important for the world to know and understand the mindset of this 
middle class in order to deal with them in the future. Here again, I don't 
pretend to know more than anybody else who may have a better understanding 
of Chinese culture and history.   However, being born and raised in China 
until age 22 and in touch with 10-30 generation in China, I do believe 
that the following statement may be appropriate.

	Today's middle class in China demands respect and equal treatment. They 
have acquired much self-esteem out of their own effort for personal and 
national achievement.  Increasingly, as their standard of living is being 
raised, the sense of individual significance within the society is also 
being embraced and accepted.   They are open-minded and actively seeking 
opportunities to become a participant on the world scene. At the same 
time, they are learning about colonialism and imperialism from history. 
They have not forgotten the fact that historical injustices and atrocities 
like the Nanjing Massacre are for a just resolution.    Finally, they are 
once again turning to the essence of the Chinese culture that declares 
"peace with justice based on the universally accepted Golden Rule for 
human society is the principle foundation of making friends and 
maintaining world peace". 

About the author:

Dr. Tzy C. Pengt, a retired aerospace scientist since 1992, has been
contributing articles to Chinese American Forum (CAF) since 1985.  He has served as a voluntary CAF officer and primary donor since 1992.   He is the current Chairman of 
the CAF Board and the managing editor since the CAF publishing operation 
relocated from Washington, D.C. to St. Louis County, Mo. in 1997 and later 
St. Charles County, MO in 1999.